Weekly Crop Commentary - 05/15/2026
May 15, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. Grain markets had a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact type of week. The markets had such optimism that the China summit was going to reveal a big new commitment to purchase U.S. soybeans and corn. This had the markets pushing back the highs from last week on corn and pushing beans to new highs for the move. Once the market found out this was not the case, it began to run lower. Technically, we broke the 9, 20, and 50-day moving averages, now setting our sights on the 100-day moving averages for both corn and beans. Planting progress in the western part of the corn belt was massive last week and looks to be the same this week. We will see what Monday night’s report says.
The talk in my neighborhood this week was replanting. Lots of beans are getting touched up as the frost events thinned them out. Hearing some corn replanting reports, but nowhere near the volume of beans. The 5-day precipitation forecast has most of our area getting another half to one inch of rain. This will push planting back in some areas to the Memorial Day weekend. If this comes to fruition, will we see the switch from corn to beans? I don’t think we will see much corn planted after Memorial Day, as inputs are still high and the last two years haven’t given us bad memories.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Bit of a roller coaster week in the markets and with the weather. We started the week very strong overall, with the May WASDE report showing the smallest wheat crop in decades. New crop production was down 25 MMT year over year. Following this report, President Trump met with President Xi of China, where it was stated that there will be no additional Chinese purchases of soybeans; however, they are still verbally committed to buying 25 MMT of US beans for the next 3 seasons. We will need to keep an eye on the validity of this verbal agreement.
The House of Representatives also voted to approve the year-round sale of E-15, but the U.S. Soybean Association responded to this bill, stating that it will be unable to support the bill as it stands. The benefits from the E-15 would be offset by losses in bean oil demand, netting negatively for U.S. farmers.
The weather is finally shaping up just in time for more rain to move through this weekend. A vast majority of acres were planted this week, but in my region, it is slow-moving. Few farmers are completely finished planting, with more who haven’t been able to start yet.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Another week has flown by as we’ve had some nice weather to end it.
Corn has been ugly over the past two days – no other way to put it. Current market momentum has us trending lower as there’s been a severe lack of bullish headlines. Markets just seem tired. Tired of the war in Iran, tired of potential Chinese purchases, tired of the inflation story, and they’ve seemingly gone back to trading basics - i.e., balance sheets, which are not a bullish story right now. Funds are estimated to have liquidated 22,500 contracts of corn (112 million bushels), all while oil has pushed back over $100 a barrel. December futures seem destined to test the 100-day average ($4.70), and it’s hard to see where we go from here. While it’s not pretty right now, USDA’s projected balance sheet is delicate, so if issues arise this summer, it should create some positive momentum.
Replant is in full swing in the area this week, as seemingly most beans planted before 4/15 were affected by frost. That being said, soybean futures must have gotten some frost as well. Why the massive turnaround all of a sudden? I like this quote from our StoneX brokers: “I think the better question to ask is — what didn’t happen?” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China’s purchases of beans from the U.S. this year are “all taken care of,” so that effectively eliminates hopes for any additional purchases this year. China has also been quoted as saying they’re going to buy double-digit billions worth of ag products from the U.S. in the coming years. That was later clarified to include all agricultural products - not just soybeans. It’s not all doom and gloom, however. USDA’s projected 2026/27 balance sheet includes a record crush number as domestic demand remains strong. This should continue to grow as biodiesel regulations push more demand for oil.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
What a whirlwind of a week in the grain markets. Markets started off the week on a positive note on Monday. Monday evening’s crop progress report showed U.S. corn and soybean planting progress generally in line with last year and slightly ahead of the average pace, while wheat condition ratings continue to struggle.
The USDA report released on Tuesday at noon added even more excitement to the market, estimating the smallest U.S. wheat crop in nearly 50 years. Wheat responded aggressively, testing the limit up on Tuesday.
Things took a turn the other way in the grain markets on Thursday this week. No significant news came from President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi. Additionally, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the year-round sales of E-15 fuel. Following this news, corn and beans were both down. There are concerns that the passing of the E-15 bill could cause a decrease in bean oil demand and impact soybean farmers negatively.
Volatility remains high with the markets responding quickly to headlines. It is beneficial to continue to have target offers working to capture these rallies when the market does react.
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. Grain markets had a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact type of week. The markets had such optimism that the China summit was going to reveal a big new commitment to purchase U.S. soybeans and corn. This had the markets pushing back the highs from last week on corn and pushing beans to new highs for the move. Once the market found out this was not the case, it began to run lower. Technically, we broke the 9, 20, and 50-day moving averages, now setting our sights on the 100-day moving averages for both corn and beans. Planting progress in the western part of the corn belt was massive last week and looks to be the same this week. We will see what Monday night’s report says.
The talk in my neighborhood this week was replanting. Lots of beans are getting touched up as the frost events thinned them out. Hearing some corn replanting reports, but nowhere near the volume of beans. The 5-day precipitation forecast has most of our area getting another half to one inch of rain. This will push planting back in some areas to the Memorial Day weekend. If this comes to fruition, will we see the switch from corn to beans? I don’t think we will see much corn planted after Memorial Day, as inputs are still high and the last two years haven’t given us bad memories.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Bit of a roller coaster week in the markets and with the weather. We started the week very strong overall, with the May WASDE report showing the smallest wheat crop in decades. New crop production was down 25 MMT year over year. Following this report, President Trump met with President Xi of China, where it was stated that there will be no additional Chinese purchases of soybeans; however, they are still verbally committed to buying 25 MMT of US beans for the next 3 seasons. We will need to keep an eye on the validity of this verbal agreement.
The House of Representatives also voted to approve the year-round sale of E-15, but the U.S. Soybean Association responded to this bill, stating that it will be unable to support the bill as it stands. The benefits from the E-15 would be offset by losses in bean oil demand, netting negatively for U.S. farmers.
The weather is finally shaping up just in time for more rain to move through this weekend. A vast majority of acres were planted this week, but in my region, it is slow-moving. Few farmers are completely finished planting, with more who haven’t been able to start yet.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Another week has flown by as we’ve had some nice weather to end it.
Corn has been ugly over the past two days – no other way to put it. Current market momentum has us trending lower as there’s been a severe lack of bullish headlines. Markets just seem tired. Tired of the war in Iran, tired of potential Chinese purchases, tired of the inflation story, and they’ve seemingly gone back to trading basics - i.e., balance sheets, which are not a bullish story right now. Funds are estimated to have liquidated 22,500 contracts of corn (112 million bushels), all while oil has pushed back over $100 a barrel. December futures seem destined to test the 100-day average ($4.70), and it’s hard to see where we go from here. While it’s not pretty right now, USDA’s projected balance sheet is delicate, so if issues arise this summer, it should create some positive momentum.
Replant is in full swing in the area this week, as seemingly most beans planted before 4/15 were affected by frost. That being said, soybean futures must have gotten some frost as well. Why the massive turnaround all of a sudden? I like this quote from our StoneX brokers: “I think the better question to ask is — what didn’t happen?” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China’s purchases of beans from the U.S. this year are “all taken care of,” so that effectively eliminates hopes for any additional purchases this year. China has also been quoted as saying they’re going to buy double-digit billions worth of ag products from the U.S. in the coming years. That was later clarified to include all agricultural products - not just soybeans. It’s not all doom and gloom, however. USDA’s projected 2026/27 balance sheet includes a record crush number as domestic demand remains strong. This should continue to grow as biodiesel regulations push more demand for oil.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
What a whirlwind of a week in the grain markets. Markets started off the week on a positive note on Monday. Monday evening’s crop progress report showed U.S. corn and soybean planting progress generally in line with last year and slightly ahead of the average pace, while wheat condition ratings continue to struggle.
The USDA report released on Tuesday at noon added even more excitement to the market, estimating the smallest U.S. wheat crop in nearly 50 years. Wheat responded aggressively, testing the limit up on Tuesday.
Things took a turn the other way in the grain markets on Thursday this week. No significant news came from President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi. Additionally, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the year-round sales of E-15 fuel. Following this news, corn and beans were both down. There are concerns that the passing of the E-15 bill could cause a decrease in bean oil demand and impact soybean farmers negatively.
Volatility remains high with the markets responding quickly to headlines. It is beneficial to continue to have target offers working to capture these rallies when the market does react.